Pathways to democracy after authoritarian breakdown: Comparative case selection and lessons from the past

Mass movements that are able to overthrow a dictator do not always lead democracy. Transition periods present narrow windows of opportunity in which activists face difficult decisions build democracy and prevent authoritarian relapse. Existing scholarship offers limited guidance for pro-democracy forces because it focuses on unchangeable structural factors cases with known outcome. We propose an innovative approach finding informative comparisons ongoing transitions after breakdowns. quantify the similarity between all breakdowns caused by mass uprisings since 1945 based their preconditions. then apply our Sudan’s transition draw lessons from two similar cases: Philippines 1986 (successful democratization); Burma/Myanmar 1988 (failed democratization). Our analysis shows weak predictors outcomes Sudan shares characteristics both failed successful democratization. Therefore, democratic appears possible Sudan.